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吉利飞行汽车或于2019年交付 飞车行业瓶颈仍待解
发表时间：2018-12-29 10:28:29 作者：飞行汽车 点击：
近日，据浙江吉利控股集团消息，其旗下全资子公司美国Terrafugia研发设计的全球首款飞行车，已开始接受私人预订。吉利集团方面介绍称，截至目前，公司已成功开发出多辆运行良好的飞行汽车原型车，计划于2019年在美国正式上市。
不过，能否真正如期上市还有待时间验证，毕竟飞行汽车行业“跳票”现象已不罕见。自1990年至今专注于飞行汽车研发的斯洛伐克公司Aeromobil在2016年放下豪言，其官方推出的飞行汽车The Aeromobil 4.0计划于2017年底接受预订，2018年正式上市。然而到2017年，该公司确认，交付成车的时间点为2020年。
此外，荷兰PAL-V公司设计和制造的三轮飞行汽车Liberty早在2012年便首飞成功，并于2014年5月开始投入生产，2017年已开始接受预订，最初预计首批飞行汽车于2018年底交付。但在今年举行的英格兰法恩伯勒航空展上，该飞行汽车的交付时间点悄然改为2020年。
“空中飞行汽车既存在技术方面的挑战，也存在社会用户方面的挑战。”此前在接受21世纪经济报道记者独家专访时，Udacity飞行汽车开发项目负责人Jake Lussier指出，“从社会用户方面而言，如何让飞行汽车系统落地到城市基础设施中去，这需面临整个社会层面的挑战。同时，让大型飞行汽车自动、安全地出行本身，也存在技术瓶颈。”
据吉利方面介绍，其飞行汽车由中美双方合作研发，预计2019年在美上市，2020年实现年产销300万辆。同时，吉利还计划于2023年推出全球首台垂直起降的飞行汽车。
资料显示，吉利该款名为Transition的双座飞行车采用折叠机翼，可在1分钟内完成地面行驶模式和空中飞行模式的切换。飞行模式下，汽车由一台四缸涡轮增压汽油发动机提供动力，最高时速为160公里，空中续航640公里，起飞滑跑距离为425米。
Aeromobil飞行汽车4.0版本则可在3分钟内从汽车形态变为飞机形态。处于汽车模式时，时速可达161公里，进入飞行模式后，打开后的机翼可达8.32米，时速达到200公里。满燃料状态下汽车及飞行模式续航能力分别为875公里和700公里。
Liberty飞行汽车主要由轻质材料碳纤维、钛及铝打造，拥有双动力推进系统、三车轮、两旋翼桨叶，并配备以汽油为燃料的转子发动机。其空陆转换大约需要10分钟，百公里加速时间仅需8秒，最高时速180公里，可支持350公里飞行或1200公里陆地行驶。
“从技术的角度而言，目前无人机的底层基础技术足够好，能够生产乘用无人机，亦即飞行汽车。”埃森哲软件与平台行业全球董事总经理Robin Murdoch告诉21世纪经济报道记者，“同时，无人飞行汽车能够在一定程度上缓解地面交通拥堵问题，具备一定的应用场景。”
“飞行汽车用途非常广泛，可供商用，也可供军用，尤其在应对紧急情况方面，譬如在消防、边境巡逻、救援和急件投递方面，飞行汽车都有着非常合适的用处。”华泰证券（15.870， 0.16， 1.02%）相关研究团队指出。
华泰证券研究团队表示，传统汽车受限于马路宽度以及马路基础建设架构，在车流量巨大的交通路面不得不面临堵车这一交通矛盾，“飞行汽车能有效地缓解交通压力，将地面车流量转移至空中，配合飞行汽车良好的自由度及飞行转向能力，实现交通顺畅以及始发地至目的地的直线到达。在抢险救灾时或遇到突发情况时候，道路被切断导致传统车辆无法行驶，飞行汽车可以起到重要作用。”
“飞行汽车目前最大的挑战依旧是硬件的革新，这是系统化的挑战，任何技术来到这个领域，都要很好地进行整合。”Jake Lussier告诉21世纪经济报道记者。
其中，电池是飞行汽车需要首要面对的问题。空客公司Vahana自动飞行车项目负责人Zach Lovering近日公开表示，目前飞行汽车电池的供电能力还不够持久，“依据电池耗电，飞行汽车可承受的使用人数为2-5人。预计电池研发进度将以每年8%的速度增长。”
同时还有机身设计的挑战。“适应空气动力学的飞行需要流线型机身以减少整体飞行阻力，尤其是底盘部分。”华泰证券研究团队指出，“汽车形态要求底盘厚重且平坦，以保证路面行驶的平稳性以及路面适应性，但是对于飞行形态而言，平坦的底盘不符合飞行的阻力最低原理。”
此外，当前飞行汽车起降时，大多需要几百米长的平整滑道，这在一定程度上限制了其用途。噪音问题也有待解决，“大众对这个行业的接受度是非常重要的，目前仍需探讨什么等级的噪声可以被大众接受。”美国联邦航空管理局Raquel Girvin指出。
飞行汽车成本的居高不下，也对其普及造成了困难。根据公开资料显示，Aeromobil飞行汽车计划售价为160万美元，Liberty飞行汽车首批限量款车型的零售价为49.9万欧元（约合391.5万人民币）。即便是相对便宜的吉利旗下Transition，其售价预计至少也是29万美元，约合人民币200万元。
“现在飞行汽车的需求量非常重要，只有需求上去了，价格才可能降下来。”Jake Lussier坦言，“如果在社区中小范围分享飞行汽车，人均成本可以相对少一些，也可以让飞行汽车更好地进行推广，这是我们看到的一种商业模式。但最重要的，还是未来需求数量的提升。”
英文版
English version
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and other technologies, unmanned driving is speeding up landing. At the same time, the exposure frequency of another new species "flying car" is also increasing. A group of flying automobile companies that once boasted about Haikou are gradually moving towards the time node to verify delivery capability.
Recently, according to Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, the world's first flying car developed and designed by Terrafugia, its wholly owned subsidiary, has begun to accept private bookings. Geely Group said that up to now, the company has successfully developed a number of prototype flying cars, which are scheduled to be officially launched in the United States in 2019.
However, whether it can be listed on time remains to be verified. After all, the phenomenon of "ticket jump" in the flying automobile industry is not uncommon. Since 1990, Aeromobil, a Slovak company focusing on the development of flying cars, put down its bold words in 2016. Its official flying car, The Aeromobil 4.0, is scheduled to be booked by the end of 2017 and officially launched in 2018. By 2017, however, the company confirmed that the delivery time was 2020.
In addition, the three-wheeled flying vehicle Liberty designed and manufactured by PAL-V Company in the Netherlands was successfully launched in 2012 and put into production in May 2014. It has been booked in 2017 and the first flying vehicles are initially expected to be delivered by the end of 2018. But at this year's Farnborough Air Show in England, the delivery time of the flying car was quietly changed to 2020.
"Air-flying vehicles have both technical and social challenges" In an exclusive interview with 21st century economic reporters, Jake Lussier, head of Udacity Flying Vehicle Development Project, pointed out that "from the perspective of social users, how to land the Flying Vehicle System in the urban infrastructure needs to face the challenges of the entire social level. At the same time, there are technical bottlenecks for large flying vehicles to travel automatically and safely.
According to Geely, its flying cars are developed by China and the United States, and are expected to be listed in the United States in 2019, with annual production and sales of 3 million by 2020. At the same time, Geely plans to launch the world's first vertical take-off and landing flying car in 2023.
According to the data, Geely's two-seat flying car, Transition, uses folded wings and can switch between ground mode and air mode in one minute. In flight mode, the vehicle is powered by a four-cylinder turbocharged gasoline engine with a maximum speed of 160 kilometers per hour, a flight duration of 640 kilometers and a takeoff and taxi distance of 425 meters.
Aeromobil Flying Vehicle Version 4.0 can change from automobile form to aircraft form in 3 minutes. In automobile mode, the speed can reach 161 kilometers per hour. After entering flight mode, the open wing can reach 8.32 meters and the speed can reach 200 kilometers per hour. The endurance of vehicle and flight mode under full fuel condition is 875 kilometers and 700 kilometers respectively.
The Liberty Flying Vehicle is mainly made of lightweight carbon fibers, titanium and aluminium. It has a dual propulsion system, three wheels, two rotor blades and a gasoline-fueled rotor engine. Its air-to-land conversion takes about 10 minutes, 100-kilometer acceleration takes only 8 seconds, with a maximum speed of 180 kilometers per hour, and can support 350 kilometers of flight or 1200 kilometers of land travel.
"From a technical point of view, the underlying technology of UAVs is good enough to produce passenger UAVs, or flying vehicles" Robin Murdoch, global managing director of Accenture Software and Platform Industry, told 21st Century Economic Reporter, "At the same time, unmanned aerial vehicles can alleviate traffic congestion on the ground to a certain extent, with certain application scenarios"
"Flying vehicles are widely used for commercial and military purposes, especially in response to emergencies, such as fire fighting, border patrols, rescue and emergency delivery. Flying vehicles are very suitable for use" Huatai Securities (15.870, 0.16, 1.02%) related research team pointed out.
Huatai Securities Research Team said that traditional vehicles are limited by road width and road infrastructure, and have to face traffic congestion on the traffic road with huge traffic flow. "Flying vehicles can effectively alleviate traffic pressure, transfer ground traffic to the air, cooperate with flying vehicles'good freedom and flight steering ability, and achieve smooth traffic and start-up" The line from the ground to the destination arrives. In emergency relief or emergency situations, the road is cut off and traditional vehicles can not drive. Flying vehicles can play an important role.
"At present, the biggest challenge for flying cars is still the hardware innovation, which is a systematic challenge. Any technology in this field should be well integrated" Jake Lussier told 21st Century Economic Reporters.
Among them, batteries are the most important problem for flying vehicles. Zach Lovering, head of the Vahana AV project at Airbus, said publicly recently that the power supply capacity of the batteries for flying cars is not long enough. "According to the power consumption of batteries, the number of people who can afford to use the batteries for flying cars is 2-5. It is expected that the progress of battery research and development will grow at an annual rate of 8%.
At the same time, there are challenges of personal design. "Aerodynamic flight requires streamlined fuselage to reduce overall flight resistance, especially the chassis" Huatai Securities Research Team pointed out that "the chassis is required to be thick and flat in order to ensure the road stability and road adaptability, but for the flight form, the flat chassis does not conform to the principle of minimum resistance in flight"
In addition, most of the current flying vehicles need several hundred meters of smooth slideway when taking off and landing, which limits their use to a certain extent. The problem of noise has yet to be solved. "The public's acceptance of the industry is very important. At present, we still need to explore what level of noise can be accepted by the public" Raquel Girvin of the Federal Aviation Administration pointed out.
The high cost of flying cars also makes it difficult to popularize them. According to public data, the planned price of Aeromobil flying car is $1.6 million, while the retail price of the first limited model of Liberty flying car is 499,000 euros (about 3.915 million RMB). Even Geely's relatively cheap Transition is expected to sell for at least $290,000, or about $2 million.
"The demand for flying cars is very important nowadays. Only when the demand goes up can the price fall down" Jake Lussier admits, "If flying cars are shared in small and medium-sized communities, the cost per capita can be relatively low, and flying cars can be better promoted. This is a business model we see. But the most important thing is to increase the quantity of demand in the future.
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