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短期内关卡难除，飞行汽车恐难实现量产
发表时间：2018-12-19 13:07:32 作者：飞行汽车 点击：
仔细观察飞行汽车玩家们，你会发现，大多数的玩家研发飞行汽车的进展很慢。像Terrafugia飞行汽车、Uber以及英特尔等玩家速度已经算是快的了，造出了能飞的汽车，但目前还没上市，而有的玩家还在研究怎么才能让汽车飞起来。只不过玩家们对飞行汽车的研发还处在初级阶段，便已被大肆宣传，让人不禁怀疑这只是一个噱头。好比互联网造车公司也曾被揶揄为“ppt造车”一样。
究其原因，主要是目前飞行汽车正面临着三道关卡阻碍，不易实现量产。
关卡一，法律政策限制。目前国内法律政策在允许无人驾驶汽车上路这方面都还没得到落实，更别说是离我们还很遥远的飞行汽车了。即使对于交通监管方面比较开放的国外，也只是有少数部分国家允许飞行汽车起飞，大多数的国家并还没有出台专门性的飞行汽车法规。
众所周知，飞机的噪音非常大，飞行汽车也不例外。特斯拉CEO马斯克曾在社交网站Twitter上公开抨击过Uber，他是这么说的：“如果你喜欢无人机在你家房子上方飞来飞去，那么你就会喜欢体积和噪音大上1000倍的‘汽车’飞过头顶，在它们着陆时吹走一切固定不牢的东西。”马斯克将飞行汽车比作是体积和噪音都要大上1000倍的无人机，会给人类带来巨大的噪音污染，而且着陆时带来的强大风力会对周边人与事物带来不利的影响。
对于马斯克的质疑，Uber首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西（Dara Khosrowshahi）作出了回应，表示飞行汽车通过使用诸如特斯拉公司先进的电池生产技术以及更小的旋翼，可以让自己逐渐变得更加环保、噪音更小。Uber的想法是好的，只不过先进技术并非一朝一夕就能开发出来，逐渐减少噪音还需要挺长的一个过程。
关卡二，安全问题难保障。据悉，飞行汽车曾发生过多起事故，在2014年5月，一款名为Maverick的飞行汽车在加拿大英属哥伦比亚省佛农的一所小学操场发生过一起坠毁事故，同年10月，两名男子驾驶的Maverick飞行汽车在佛罗里达州中部坠落。2015年，Aeromobil公司的飞行汽车在一起测试中坠毁，所幸的是飞行员打开了降落伞，安全逃离。飞行汽车事故的多发令飞行汽车的安全性受到了不小的质疑，飞行汽车的安全性有待考究。
关卡三，花费成本高。一方面，从开发商来看，造飞行汽车比造普通汽车要复杂很多，想要让汽车飞起来，就必须保证获得足够的资金，在技术、安全等方面投入高额资金，才能保证高质量。此外，飞行汽车开发出来了，想要实现量产，又是需要一笔更大的资金。
另一方面，从购买者来看，很多时候，成本决定价格。飞行汽车的成本高了，相应的定价自然就会随之而高。据了解，不久前Terrafugia飞行汽车公司发布了两座的飞行汽车Transition量产车型的产品细节。宣布该车将今年10月接受预定，2019年上市，预售价19万美元（约合人民币130万元）。而此前据英国汽车媒体报道， 荷兰 PAL-V 公司旗下首款量产商用飞行汽车— PAL-V Liberty 公开亮相2018日内瓦车展。据了解，首批量产飞行汽车符合欧洲道路及航空交通标准，现已接受预定，价格约为 42.5 万英镑 ( 约 373.5 万元 ) ，该车限量出售90辆，宣称 2019 年正式交付。
从这两家公司的飞行汽车预售价格看出，飞行汽车售价至少在100万元以上，这个价格对于大多数工薪家庭来说是消费不起的，只有一些富豪才能买得起。但不见得富豪都会对飞行汽车感兴趣而去购买，如此看来，飞行汽车想要实现量产或许很难。而且就算这些玩家把飞行汽车用于出租车业务，价格恐怕是要比普通出租车贵很多，大多数用户并不会选择作为日常交通工具。依目前的情况来看，玩家们短期内想要突破这三道关卡并不容易，只要其中任何一道关卡不除，都会影响到飞行汽车量产的实现。玩家们最终能否坚持走到最后无人能够未卜先知，不排除个别玩家存在过了一把噱头瘾便抽身离去的现象。
英文版
English version
Flying cars are more difficult and challenging than building driverless cars. Flying cars should not only retain the function of driving on land, but also be able to fly like airplanes with "wings" flying into the sky. It is conceivable how high the requirement for players to design such amphibious vehicles is.
If you look closely at the flying car players, you will find that most of them are making slow progress in developing flying cars. Players like Terrafugia, Uber and Intel are already fast enough to build flying cars, but they are not yet on the market, and some players are still studying how to make them fly. However, the development of flying cars is still in its infancy, and has been widely publicized, which makes people suspect that this is just a gimmick. Just as Internet car companies were once derided as "ppt cars".
The main reason is that the flying car is facing three barriers and is not easy to achieve mass production.
The first level is the restriction of law and policy. At present, domestic laws and policies have not been implemented to allow driverless cars to go on the road, let alone flying cars far away from us. Even in foreign countries where traffic regulation is relatively open, only a few countries allow flying cars to take off, and most countries have not yet introduced specific regulations on flying cars.
As we all know, the noise of airplanes is very loud, and flying cars are no exception. Tesla CEO Mask has publicly attacked Uber on social networking site Twitter, saying, "If you like UAVs flying over your house, you'll like cars that are 1,000 times bigger and noisier to fly overhead and blow away everything that's not fixed when they land" Musk compares flying cars to UAVs that are 1,000 times larger in size and noise, which will bring enormous noise pollution to human beings, and the strong wind brought by landing will have adverse effects on people and things around them.
In response to Musk's queries, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said that flying cars could gradually become more environmentally friendly and less noisy by using advanced battery production technologies such as Tesla and smaller rotors. Uber's idea is good, but advanced technology can't be developed overnight. It will take a long time to gradually reduce noise.
Secondly, the security problem is difficult to guarantee. It is reported that there have been many accidents in the flying car. In May 2014, a flying car named Maverick crashed at a primary school playground in Vernon, British Columbia, Canada. In October of the same year, the Maverick flying car driven by two men crashed in central Florida. In 2015, Aeromobil's flying car crashed in a test together. Fortunately, the pilot opened his parachute and fled safely. The frequent occurrence of flying car accidents makes the safety of flying car be questioned, and the safety of flying car needs to be studied.
Third, the cost is high. On the one hand, from the point of view of developers, building flying cars is much more complicated than building ordinary cars. If we want to make cars fly, we must ensure that we get enough funds and invest a lot of money in technology, safety and other aspects to ensure high quality. In addition, the development of flying cars, in order to achieve mass production, but also need a larger amount of money.
On the other hand, from the buyer's point of view, cost often determines price. The cost of flying cars is high, and the corresponding pricing will naturally be high. It is understood that not long ago Terrafugia Flying Automobile Company released the product details of two Flying Vehicle Transition mass-produced models. It was announced that the car would be scheduled to go on sale in October this year for 2019 at a pre-sale price of $190,000 (about 1.3 million yuan). Previously, according to British automotive media reports, the first commercial flying car produced by Dutch PAL-V company, PAL-V Liberty, was unveiled at the 2018 Geneva Motor Show. It is understood that the first batch of mass-produced flying cars meet European road and air traffic standards and have accepted reservations at a price of about 425,000 pounds (about 3735,000 yuan). The car is limited to 90 vehicles and is declared to be officially delivered in 2019.
From the pre-sale prices of the two companies, it can be seen that the price of the flying car is at least more than 1 million yuan, which is unaffordable for most salaried families, and only some wealthy people can afford it. But it's not likely that the rich will be interested in flying cars and buy them, so it may be difficult for flying cars to achieve mass production. And even if these players use flying cars for taxi business, the price will probably be much more expensive than ordinary taxis. Most users will not choose to use flying cars as a daily means of transportation. According to the current situation, it is not easy for players to break through these three barriers in a short time. As long as any of them is not removed, it will affect the realization of the production of flying cars. Whether players can finally persist until the end, no one can predict the prophet, not excluding the phenomenon that individual players have gone away after a gimmick addiction.
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